Hansa Rostock’s 5-3 victory over Stuttgart II was decided by a blistering first-half attacking display that the visitors could not quite recover from, even after a late rally. The Lemeister model had given the hosts a 48 per cent chance of winning, and the final scoreline exceeded its projection of a 3-1 result, but the pattern of the match , with Rostock scoring four times in the opening 34 minutes , bore out the model’s assessment of the home side’s superiority in terms of clinical finishing and early control.
The scoring began with a penalty for Stuttgart II after only six minutes, converted by N. Sessa. That early lead lasted only ten minutes. At minute 16, K. Fatkic equalised for Hansa Rostock, with A. Lebeau supplying the assist. The game turned decisively in the home side’s favour over a three-minute spell late in the first half. First, E. Holten put Rostock ahead at minute 31, again assisted by Lebeau. Then, at minute 34, L. Wallner extended the lead to 3-1, with F. Pfanne providing the assist. D. Hummel added a fourth just after half-time, in the 51st minute, scoring unassisted to make it 4-1.
Stuttgart II showed some resistance. N. Jatta pulled one back at minute 58, assisted by N. Darvich, trimming the deficit to 4-2. With the game entering stoppage time, T. Kohler scored at minute 90, assisted by A. Nankishi, bringing the visitors to within a single goal at 4-3. However, Hansa Rostock had the final word in the same minute, with A. Voglsammer scoring, assisted by K. Fatkic, to seal the 5-3 victory.
The statistical picture reflects the open nature of the contest. Eight goals were scored from eight shots on target, indicating that nearly every clean strike found the net for both sides. The discipline data shows a clear imbalance: Stuttgart II received three yellow cards, to Hansa Rostock’s one. Mirza Ćatović was booked in the 15th minute, followed by Mansour Ouro-Tagba in the 50th minute and Tim Köhler in the 56th minute. David Hummel received the home side’s only caution, in the 47th minute. Both teams used the maximum of five substitutes, but the damage to Stuttgart II’s chances was largely done in the first half, from which they could not fully recover despite two second-half goals.
No match ratings were supplied, so the most influential performers are identified by their goal and assist contributions. A. Lebeau created two of the first three home goals with his assists, while K. Fatkic scored one and assisted another for the final goal. The three separate scorers in the first-half blitz , Fatkic, Holten, and Wallner , were instrumental in building the lead.
The result keeps Hansa Rostock firmly in the hunt for promotion or a strong finish in the 3. Liga with one round remaining. For Stuttgart II, the defeat leaves them in the bottom half of the table, confirming a season of inconsistency. The Lemeister model’s pre-match read, which favoured Rostock to win with 48 per cent probability, was vindicated by the home side’s ability to overwhelm their opponents in a high-scoring encounter.
