FC St. Pauli v FSV Mainz 05: the model read
FC St. Pauli meet FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga regular season - 32 at Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg. The model makes FSV Mainz 05 the most likely outcome at 51%, with the full read 23% FC , 25% draw, 51% FSV.
FSV Mainz 05 rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1466. Recent form leans FSV Mainz 05, 63% against 43%. Attacking output favors FSV Mainz 05 on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 84%. Draw no bet leans FSV Mainz 05 at 69%; double chance reads FC St. Pauli or draw 49%, FSV Mainz 05 or draw 77%.
FC St. Pauli arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 16 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v HNK Gorica, W 4-1 @ SV Babelsberg 03, W 3-1 @ Kickers Emden, W 6-2 @ Altona 93.
FSV Mainz 05 are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 28 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern, W 10-0 @ Eisbachtal, W 11-0 @ Pfeddersheim, W 2-0 @ 1. FC Heidenheim.
FSV Mainz 05 hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC St. Pauli 1-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
