Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart shared four goals at the Mewa Arena, a 2-2 draw that left the home side feeling the greater frustration after they had led late in the contest. The data tells a clear story of a game where Mainz created considerably more than their opponents, backed by an expected goals figure of 2.73 against Stuttgart's 0.98, yet were twice pegged back before Danny da Costa's equaliser in the 90th minute. The Lemeister model had favoured a Mainz win at 40 per cent, and while the scoreline fell into the 27 per cent draw probability, the quality of chances suggested the result was a generous one for Stuttgart.
The opening goal arrived in the 39th minute, Lee Jae-Sung finishing after a delivery from Danny da Costa for a Normal Goal. Mainz had been the more threatening side throughout the first half, and that advantage only grew as the game progressed. They finished with 18 total shots to Stuttgart's 11, six on target to four, and 14 shots from inside the penalty area to the visitors' eight. Despite conceding 62 per cent of the ball and completing only 228 of 318 passes at 72 per cent accuracy against Stuttgart's 454 of 537 at 85 per cent, Mainz were the side driving the attacking action.
The contest turned inside two minutes in the second half. Stuttgart equalised in the 76th minute, Ermedin Demirovic scoring from a Deniz Undav assist, a Normal Goal that pulled the visitors level. Just one minute later, Undav turned scorer, T. Tomas providing the assist for Stuttgart's second, and the visitors had a 2-1 lead with fewer than 15 minutes remaining. The speed of the double blow was a significant shift, but Mainz did not waver. They had been creating chances throughout and continued to do so, forcing goalkeeper Alexander Nübel into three saves across the match.
Mainz's persistence paid off deep into stoppage time. Danny da Costa scored in the 90th minute with an unassisted Normal Goal, a fitting reward for a player who earned a match-high rating of 8.5. Da Costa had been involved in both of his side's goals, providing the assist for the opener and then scoring the equaliser. Deniz Undav was Stuttgart's standout performer with a 7.7 rating for his goal and assist, while Paul Nebel (7.6) and Daniel Batz (7.5) also impressed for Mainz. Lee Jae-Sung (7.3) and Nübel (7.3) rounded out the notable ratings.
The two yellow cards both went to Stuttgart players, Tiago Tomás in the 82nd minute and Jeff Chabot in the 95th, a reflection of the 12 fouls they committed against Mainz's seven. Goalkeeper saves were even at two for Mainz and three for Stuttgart, though the goals prevented metric stood at 0.41 for each side, suggesting the keepers performed at a similar level relative to the quality of chances faced. The match had five substitutions for each team, with no further meaningful disruption to the flow of the contest.
The result has contrasting implications for the two sides. For Stuttgart, taking a point from a contest where they were outshot and out-created by a considerable margin will feel like ground gained. For Mainz, the 2.73 expected goals total and the late equaliser come with the sense that a victory was within reach. In a competitive Bundesliga mid-table battle, this draw leaves Mainz wondering what might have been if they had converted their superiority earlier in the match.
