The Rat Verlegh Stadion produced a high-scoring draw that defied the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model, which had given Feyenoord a 54 per cent win probability and projected a 3-0 away victory. The 3-3 result saw NAC Breda overturn a deficit twice, with a flurry of goals in the first half setting the tone for an open game that the underlying numbers suggest was finely balanced, despite Feyenoord's statistical dominance.
A. Ueda put Feyenoord ahead from an Anis Hadj Moussa assist in the 19th minute, but the lead lasted only three minutes before K. Sowah equalised for NAC Breda. L. Valente, assisted by M. Deijl, restored Feyenoord's advantage in the 31st minute. The pattern of swift responses continued as B. Lucassen levelled from a B. Kemper assist in the 39th minute, and A. Ayew, assisted by L. Holtby, put NAC Breda ahead just before half-time. Ueda scored his second of the game in the 52nd minute, assisted by J. Bos, to make it 3-3.
Possession was clearly with the visitors, who recorded 57 per cent to NAC Breda's 43 per cent, and their total of 414 passes to 308 reflects that control of the ball. However, the hosts were incisive when they had it, creating an expected goals tally of 1.03 from 12 shots, four of which were on target. Feyenoord's expected goals of 1.64 came from 14 total shots, with five on target, and they created more from inside the box with 11 shots to NAC Breda's eight. The gap in efficiency between possession and output was notable, as Feyenoord completed 79 per cent of their passes to NAC Breda's 71 per cent, yet could not translate that control into a decisive edge.
The Feyenoord attack was led by Anis Hadj Moussa, who earned a match rating of 8, and Jordan Bos, who scored 7.9. Both players were key in creating chances, with Hadj Moussa providing the assist for Ueda's opener and Bos assisting the equaliser. For NAC Breda, K. Sowah was the standout performer with a 7.9 rating, and A. Ayew's contribution was also significant with a 7.2. The home side's goalkeeper made two saves, while Feyenoord's made one, with both teams posting a goals prevented figure of minus 1.19, suggesting they conceded more than expected from the chances they faced. The shot count was close, 12 for NAC Breda, 14 for Feyenoord, but the visitors created more from inside the box, indicating a greater number of high-quality opportunities that were not converted.
The card count was lopsided. Feyenoord saw four yellow cards, with Jakub Moder, Raheem Sterling, Anel Ahmedhodžić and Tsuyoshi Watanabe all booked. NAC Breda's Leo Greiml received a yellow in the 70th minute and then a second yellow card in the 96th minute, a red card that left his side to finish the game a man down. Despite the numerical disadvantage for the final moments, NAC Breda held out for the draw, a result that seemed improbable given their goalkeeper faced only two shots on target.
For NAC Breda, the point was hard-earned against a Feyenoord side that came into the match as heavy favourites according to the Lemeister model. The result leaves both sides in the mid-table mix of the Eredivisie, with Feyenoord dropping points they would have expected to take. The visitors' failure to convert a greater share of possession into a winning margin, combined with a defensive performance that allowed three goals from an expected goals total of 1.03, underscores a lack of clinical edge that cost them two points in the standings.
