A late equaliser from Kian Fitz-Jim salvaged a point for Ajax in a 1-1 draw at the AFAS Stadion, a result that the data suggests favoured the visitors. The Lemeister model had given Ajax a 35% chance of victory and AZ the same probability, with a 30% likelihood of a draw. The final scoreline, therefore, represented a respectable outcome for the away side, who dominated possession but struggled to translate that control into clear-cut chances until the dying moments.
The deadlock was broken seven minutes into the second half. W. Goes scored a normal goal in the 52nd minute to put AZ Alkmaar ahead, with no assist recorded. The goal arrived against the broader statistical pattern of the contest, as Ajax commanded 62% of the ball compared to AZ’s 38%, completing 458 accurate passes from 549 attempts at an 83% success rate, while AZ managed 250 from 333 at 75%. However, AZ’s lead was built on sharper work in the final third. They registered six shots on target from 13 total attempts, forcing Ajax goalkeeper Vítězslav Jaroš into five saves. Jaroš’s performance was the highest-rated of any player on the pitch at 7.9, a reflection of his busy afternoon and the shots he repelled.
AZ also generated a higher expected goals total of 1.68 against Ajax’s 0.97, suggesting they created the better chances even while seeing less of the ball. Their six shots from inside the box were slightly fewer than Ajax’s seven, but their accuracy was superior, with six on target compared to just two for the visitors. Troy Parrott led the AZ attack with a rating of 7.5, while Wouter Goes earned 7.2 for his goal and overall contribution. The home side’s pressure was sustained but intermittent, with Ajax’s defence largely holding firm under siege.
The visitors’ persistence was rewarded in the 90th minute. O. Edvardsen provided the assist for Kian Fitz-Jim to score a normal goal and level the match. Fitz-Jim earned a rating of 7.7 for his performance, second only to his goalkeeper. Youri Baas and Mika Godts both received 7.3 ratings for their work in the Ajax midfield and attack. Ajax’s late goal came from one of only two shots on target, but they did manage seven shots from inside the box to AZ’s six, indicating a greater share of dangerous positions even if their finishing was less accurate until the final moment.
The match also saw three AZ Alkmaar players booked: Peer Koopmeiners in the 55th minute, Mees de Wit in the 59th, and Ibrahim Sadiq in the 95th. Ajax received no yellow cards, reflecting their discipline despite trailing for much of the second half. The home side committed 11 fouls to Ajax’s 12, but the card count was lopsided. Despite the home team’s superior expected goals and shots on target, the combination of Jaroš’s saves, the defensive solidity of the back four, and Fitz-Jim’s late intervention proved decisive.
For AZ Alkmaar, the point represents a missed opportunity to capitalise on their territorial disadvantage. Their expected goals advantage and six shots on target should have yielded more than a single goal, and they will rue the late concession. For Ajax, the share of the spoils keeps them within touching distance of the league’s frontrunners, the Lemeister model’s pre-match read of a 35% chance of a home win proving only narrowly incorrect. The draw leaves both sides needing to improve their consistency in the competitive mid-table battle of the Eredivisie’s Regular Season.
