San Martin S.J. v Velez Sarsfield

Velez Sarsfield won a fractious, eventful encounter in San Juan, coming from an early goal down to beat San Martin S.J. 2-1. The result, a slight surprise given the pre-match probabilities, was decided by superior efficiency in attack. The Lemeister model had given the visitors a 37 per cent chance of victory, slightly ahead of the home side's 28 per cent, and Velez made their fewer opportunities count where San Martin could not.

The match was less than 10 minutes old when Velez took a lead they would never relinquish. M. Lanzini opened the scoring from an I. Andrada assist, the goal arriving just two minutes after Tomás Cavanagh had been booked for the visitors. The home side responded with a flurry of pressure but could not find an equaliser before the interval. Their task was made more difficult when D. Godoy doubled the Velez advantage in first-half stoppage time, M. Lanzini turning from scorer to provider.

San Martin emerged for the second half with renewed intent and reduced the deficit in the 59th minute. I. Maestro scored, assisted by M. Iacobellis, to make the final stages a test of the visitors' resolve. The home team's search for a leveller grew increasingly desperate and ill-disciplined. They had already collected three yellow cards before the goal, and two more followed, alongside a red card for Velez's Aarón Quirós in the 98th minute. Despite the numerical disadvantage in added time, Velez held firm.

The statistical picture reveals a game of contrasting styles. San Martin dominated the ball with 55 per cent possession and created a far greater volume of chances, registering 17 total shots to Velez's nine. They also led emphatically in corner kicks, 11 to 4, and in shots from inside the box, 13 to 6. Yet the expected goals figures tell a very different story: San Martin's 17 attempts produced only 0.87 xG, while Velez's nine generated 0.85 xG. The home side's finishing was blunt, and their four shots on target from 17 attempts were matched by the visitors' five from nine.

Discipline was a major difference. San Martin's 23 fouls dwarfed Velez's nine, and they collected five yellow cards to the visitors' one. This pattern of frustration was reflected in the match ratings. Manuel Lanzini was the outstanding performer, earning an 8.0 rating for his goal and assist, a display of composure that decided the game. Dilan Godoy, the other scorer, received a 7.9. For San Martin, Ignacio Maestro Puch was their highest-rated player at 7.7 for his second-half strike, while Alejandro Molina scored a creditable 7.2 for the home side.

For San Martin, this defeat leaves them with work to do in the Liga Profesional Argentina's second phase. They had the possession and the attempts to secure a result but lacked the cutting edge and discipline required to defeat a clinical Velez side. The visitors, who were narrowly favoured by the Lemeister model, will take confidence from an away victory built on an efficient attack and a defence that, despite a late scare, was not breached again.