São Bernardo v Palmeiras: the model read
São Bernardo meet Palmeiras in the Paulista - A1 quarter-finals at Estádio Primeiro de Maio, São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo. The model makes Palmeiras the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 26% SÃO, 33% draw, 42% PAL.
Palmeiras rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1512. Recent form leans Palmeiras, 80% against 53%. Attacking output favors Palmeiras on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 29%. Draw no bet leans Palmeiras at 62%; double chance reads São Bernardo or draw 58%, Palmeiras or draw 74%.
São Bernardo arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Avai, D 2-2 v Cuiaba, L 1-2 @ Vila Nova, L 0-1 @ Criciuma.
Palmeiras are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Chapecoense-sc, W 4-1 v Junior, W 3-0 @ Flamengo, L 0-1 v Cerro Porteno.
Palmeiras hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: São Bernardo 0-3 Palmeiras.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
