Tupynambás v Guarani MG: the model read
Tupynambás meet Guarani MG in the Mineiro - 3 1st phase - 8 at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio, Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais. The model makes Tupynambás the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% TUP, 31% draw, 27% GUA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 45%. Attacking output favors Tupynambás on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 39%. Draw no bet leans Tupynambás at 61%; double chance reads Tupynambás or draw 73%, Guarani MG or draw 58%.
Tupynambás arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Uberaba, L 0-1 @ Uberaba, D 1-1 v Contagem, D 0-0 @ Contagem.
Guarani MG are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 v BOA, W 1-0 @ CAP, D 2-2 @ Mamoré, W 2-0 v Caldense.
Tupynambás hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Tupynambás 2-0 Guarani MG.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
