Seyssinet-Pariset produced a result that defied the Lemeister model's pre-match read, which had given them only a 25% win probability, by defeating Bourgoin-Jallieu 2-1 at the Stade Pierre Rajon. The visitors took the lead just before half-time, conceded an equaliser in the 81st minute, and then snatched all three points with a stoppage-time winner. The pattern of the contest was shaped by two distinct periods: a first half that ended with Seyssinet-Pariset ahead, and a second half in which Bourgoin-Jallieu pushed for and found an equaliser before being undone by a late sucker punch.
The opening goal arrived in the 45th minute, scored by L. Konan for the away side without an assist. That strike gave Seyssinet-Pariset a lead to protect through the interval, a position that did not entirely reflect the model's pre-match expectation of a Bourgoin-Jallieu victory with a projected 2-0 scoreline. The hosts, who had been given a 47% win probability by the model, would have felt confident of turning the match around in the second half, but they needed to breach a defence that had already held firm for 45 minutes.
Bourgoin-Jallieu's equaliser came in the 81st minute through E. Nordé, again without an assist. That goal brought the home side level and appeared to restore the natural order of the contest, aligning the scoreline with the model's initial assessment. For the next nine minutes, the match seemed to be following the expected script, with the hosts pressing for a winner that would have confirmed their status as favourites. However, the decisive moment arrived in the 90th minute, when S. Djeghmoune scored to restore Seyssinet-Pariset's advantage. This goal, like the others, was a normal goal without an assist, and it left Bourgoin-Jallieu with no time to mount a second response.
The statistical record from this match is sparse, with no cards, possession figures, shot counts, expected goals data, or player ratings available for analysis. Without these numbers, the narrative of the match is defined primarily by the timing of the goals. The three scores were all normal goals, none of which were penalties or own goals, and each lacked a credited assist. Both sides used all five permitted substitutions, but no details on which players were introduced or withdrawn are available, meaning the tactical adjustments cannot be assessed beyond their basic occurrence.
The result carries clear implications for the National 3 - Group I standings. Seyssinet-Pariset have secured a valuable away victory that the Lemeister model had rated as only a 25% likelihood, earning three points against a side projected to win. For Bourgoin-Jallieu, the failure to convert their status as pre-match favourites into a result represents a missed opportunity to strengthen their position in the group. The late defeat will be particularly damaging, as they were within minutes of salvaging at least a point before Djeghmoune's winner. The Lemeister model had projected a 2-0 home victory, but the actual outcome delivered a 2-1 away win, underscoring the unpredictability that can define the closing stages of a tight group contest.
