Sport Boys and UTC Cajamarca shared the points in a 1-1 draw at the Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao, a result that was defined by a penalty and a response from the visitors. The Lemeister model had shaded the home side as marginal favourites with a 37% win probability, but the draw proved the most fitting outcome given the balance of the underlying numbers. The model's projection of a 1-0 home win was undone by UTC Cajamarca's persistence in the second half.
The opening goal arrived four minutes into the second half. Pablo Bueno converted from the penalty spot to give Sport Boys the lead, capitalising on an opportunity that did not require an assist. That goal appeared to shift the momentum, but UTC Cajamarca responded in the 74th minute. Victor Perlaza scored a normal goal, with the assist credited to P. Requena, levelling the contest and setting up a tight final quarter. The timing of the equaliser left Sport Boys with 16 minutes of regular time to find a winner, but they could not manage it.
The statistical story is one of contrasting styles and a clear division between volume and efficiency. UTC Cajamarca dominated the shot count, registering 20 total attempts to Sport Boys' eight. They had nine shots from inside the box and 11 from outside, while the home side managed four and four respectively. Despite that volume, the expected goals figures were close: 1.24 for UTC Cajamarca and 1.05 for Sport Boys. The visitors' four shots on target were only one more than the home side's three, and the goalkeeper saves column reflected that parity at three for Sport Boys and two for UTC Cajamarca. This suggests that while UTC Cajamarca generated many attempts, few were high-quality opportunities that truly tested the goalkeeper. The four blocked shots for the visitors further indicate that their shooting was often hurried or from less favourable positions.
Possession favoured Sport Boys at 55% to 45%, and they were more efficient with the ball. Their pass completion rate was 69% from 302 attempts, compared to 61% from 255 for the visitors. That control did not translate into clear-cut chances, however, and the home side's attacking output was limited. The corner kick count was close, with Sport Boys earning two and UTC Cajamarca three, reinforcing the sense of a contest where neither side could establish sustained pressure. The card count added spice to the final stages. Juan Morales and Cristian Carbajal were booked for Sport Boys, and Victor Perlaza for UTC Cajamarca. Cristian Techera received a red card for Sport Boys deep into stoppage time, leaving the home side to see out the closing moments with ten men. That dismissal came in the 94th minute, meaning Sport Boys had to survive only a few additional seconds before the final whistle.
The match ratings highlighted a strong performance from UTC Cajamarca's Jimmy Pérez, who received a 7.7 rating, the highest of any player on the pitch. Pablo Bueno was the highest-rated home player at 7.6, reflecting his part in the goal and his general influence in the attacking phases. Juan Morales, Facundo Mansilla, Francisco Grahl and Gilmar Rodríguez all earned 7.2 or 7.3, indicating a compact team display from Sport Boys without any standout dominance. The visitors' attacking volume was not reflected in individual ratings, suggesting that despite many attempts, few were high-quality and the collective effort was more notable than any single performance. The absence of any UTC Cajamarca player in the top six ratings despite the shot dominance underscores the efficiency gap in their approach.
In the context of the Clausura table, this draw does little to separate two mid-table sides. Sport Boys will feel they had the better of the possession and could have held on for a win but for the red card. UTC Cajamarca, with 20 shots and a higher xG, may consider themselves unfortunate not to have taken all three points. The result leaves both teams looking for a spark in the closing rounds of the season, with neither able to build momentum from a single point. The draw, predicted by the Lemeister model as a 32% outcome, ultimately proved the most balanced reflection of the contest's statistical narrative.
