Morocco secured a 1-0 victory over Congo in Rabat, a result that the data suggests was overwhelmingly one-sided. The Lemeister model had projected a clear home win, giving Morocco a 60 percent chance, and the final scoreline, while narrow, reflected a complete dominance of the match statistics. The decisive moment came in the 63rd minute, when Youssef En-Nesyri scored from an assist by Achraf Hakimi. That single goal was the only one of the game, but the underlying numbers paint a picture of a fixture that was rarely in doubt.
Morocco's control began with the ball. They recorded 77 percent possession, a figure that translated into 750 passes completed at a 93 percent accuracy rate. Congo, by contrast, managed only 225 passes with a 70 percent success rate, spending the vast majority of the match chasing the ball. This territorial grip never translated into a flurry of early goals, but it created a steady stream of chances. Morocco took 18 total shots, placing five on target, with ten of those attempts coming from inside the penalty area. Congo managed just one shot all match, which was off target, and recorded zero shots on goal. The home side also earned ten corners to Congo's none.
Achraf Hakimi was the standout performer, earning a match rating of 8.9. His influence was felt in the final third, providing the assist for the only goal, and in general play, as Morocco's most potent attacking outlet. Ismael Saibari also impressed with a rating of 7.7, while defenders Nayef Aguerd and Souffian El Karouani both rated above 7.5, reflecting a back line that faced little sustained pressure. Brahim Díaz and goalscorer Youssef En-Nesyri each finished with a 7.5 rating. Congo's resistance was largely defensive and physical, as shown by their 17 fouls and three yellow cards, to Jhon Kapaya, Christ Makosso and Prince Mouandza. Morocco's lone yellow card went to Nayef Aguerd.
The match was a test of patience for Morocco. Despite the vast disparity in possession and shots, the score remained 0-0 until the 63rd minute. The home side's seven shots off goal and six blocked shots illustrate a certain lack of precision against a packed defence. Congo goalkeeper was forced into four saves, suggesting that while Morocco created enough, the finishing was not always sharp. However, the visiting side never threatened, failing to register a single shot on target and producing an expected goals total that the model's projection of 2.0 for Morocco and 0.0 for Congo would suggest was entirely one-directional.
This result in Group Stage matchday 10 keeps Morocco in a commanding position in their World Cup qualification group. The victory was the expected outcome given the home advantage and the gulf in class shown in the statistics. For Congo, the defeat leaves them with work to do, having offered little in attack and been forced into a defensive rearguard action that ultimately could not hold out. The Lemeister model's read of a comfortable home win was borne out by the data, even if the margin of victory was a single goal.
Morocco 
