Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh shared the points in a 2-2 draw at Al Fateh Club Stadium, a result that defied the pre-match expectation of the Lemeister model, which had installed Al Riyadh as narrow favourites with a 37 per cent win probability and projected a 1-0 away victory. The numbers show a match of two distinct phases: Al-Fateh dominated the first hour and built a two-goal lead, only to concede twice in stoppage time after Al Riyadh had been reduced to 10 men.
Djaniny opened the scoring in the sixth minute, converting from a Lucas Zelarayán assist. Al-Fateh doubled their advantage in the 80th minute when Lucas Zelarayán himself found the net, assisted by Sofiane Bendebka. That second goal appeared to have sealed the contest, but Al Riyadh mounted an extraordinary late fightback. Mohammed Al Shwirekh pulled one back in the first minute of added time from a Knowledge Musona assist, and deep into stoppage time, Didier N’Dong equalised with the help of Abdulelah Al Khaibari. The timing of the goals meant Al-Fateh had no opportunity to respond.
The statistical chasm between the sides was unmistakable. Al-Fateh enjoyed 68 per cent of the possession, completing 594 of 656 passes at a 91 per cent accuracy rate, compared to Al Riyadh’s 246 accurate passes from 319 attempts at 77 per cent. Al-Fateh also registered 14 total shots to Al Riyadh’s seven, though the visitors’ discipline in front of goal was superior: their four shots on target from seven attempts produced two goals, whereas Al-Fateh needed five shots on target from 14 attempts for their two. The home side’s expected goals output, while not provided in the data, would logically have been heavily tilted in their favour given the volume of chances, but their failure to convert pressure into a third goal proved costly.
The match rating leaderboard reflected the key contributors. Lucas Zelarayán earned an 8.6 rating, the highest of any player, for his goal and assist that seemed to have placed Al-Fateh in control. Didier N’Dong, the Al Riyadh midfielder, was his side’s standout with a 7.9 rating, scoring the vital equaliser. Sofiane Bendebka (7.7) and Mohammed Al Shwirekh (7.7) also performed strongly, while Cristian Tello and Djaniny both registered 7.5 for Al-Fateh.
The game was also defined by its disciplinary record. Al Riyadh’s Khalid Bin Shuwayyi was sent off in the 54th minute, a red card that should have strengthened Al-Fateh’s grip on the match. Instead, Al Riyadh’s resilience after the dismissal was remarkable. Al-Fateh collected three yellow cards – Othman Al-Othman in the 15th minute, Saeed Baattia in the 57th, and Marwane Saadane in the 93rd – and committed 15 fouls to Al Riyadh’s seven, suggesting a degree of frustration as the away side grew into the contest despite being a man down.
For Al-Fateh, this result feels like two points dropped after controlling the game so emphatically. For Al Riyadh, the late show earns a valuable away point that the Lemeister model’s pre-match read had not expected them to lose, and the character shown in coming back from two goals down with 10 men could prove significant in the Pro League season’s closing stages.
