The match finished goalless after 120 minutes and was decided by a penalty shoot-out, in which Mali U23 emerged victorious 4-3. The Lemeister model had favoured Mali before kick-off, giving them a 42 per cent win probability to Guinea’s 25 per cent, but the data from the shoot-out alone tells the story of how the bronze medal was secured. The model’s pre-match projection of a 1-0 win for Mali proved accurate in terms of the winner, but the manner of victory, via penalties after a goalless draw, was far tighter than its probabilities suggested.
All seven shoot-out goals came from the penalty spot, with the first six exchanged in a relentless sequence. Guinea took the lead in the 121st minute when F. Camara converted, but M. Diambou equalised for Mali a minute later. M. Lamine Soumah put Guinea back ahead in the 123rd minute, only for H. Diallo to level immediately. O. Camara struck for Guinea in the 124th minute, and A. Diomande responded for Mali in the same minute. The decisive moment arrived in the 125th minute when M. Bah scored, giving Mali a lead they would not relinquish. Guinea’s failure to convert one of their penalties, they scored three of their four attempts, while Mali converted all four, proved the margin of defeat.
The statistics for the 120 minutes of regulation and extra time were not recorded in the available data, meaning the narrative of open-play superiority must remain absent. However, the disciplinary record offers some insight into the contest’s physical dimension. Mali collected three yellow cards: A. Tamboura was booked in the 56th minute, M. Bah in the 86th, and the latter caution was his only booking. Guinea’s N. Camara received a yellow card in the 91st minute, a late caution that reflected the tension of the closing stages. Both teams used four substitutes, indicating that fatigue and tactical adjustments played a role in the latter stages of a match that lasted 125 minutes.
Given the absence of shots, possession, passing or expected goals data, the shoot-out becomes the sole metric of performance. Mali’s composure from 12 yards, particularly under the pressure of a third-place final, was the difference. The fact that Guinea scored three of their penalties to Mali’s four means the contest was decided by one conversion. The Lemeister model’s pre-match read of Mali as favourites was validated, but the absence of any goals in open play or extra time meant the match was decided by a discipline that could not be forecast.
The result means Mali U23 finish third in the CAF U23 Cup of Nations, securing the bronze medal after a tournament that will have tested their resilience. For Guinea, a campaign that promised much ends with a fourth-place finish, their three penalties in the shoot-out not enough to overcome Mali’s perfect record from the spot. The shoot-out, while a cruel way to decide a match, rewards the side that handles pressure best, and on this occasion Mali were that side. With no goals in open play and only the penalties providing the scoreline, the match will be remembered for its tension rather than its football, but the bronze medal belongs to the team that held its nerve longest.
