A 0-0 draw after 120 minutes was decided by a penalty shoot-out in which India held their nerve more effectively, converting four of their five spot-kicks to Lebanon's two. Goalless across regulation and extra time, the match was defined by defensive solidity and a lack of cutting edge from both sides, with the Lemeister model having projected a narrow Lebanon win but also a 31 per cent chance of a draw. The shoot-out, which accounted for all six goals, began with India's S. Chhetri scoring in the 121st minute, followed by A. Ali in the 123rd. Lebanon replied through Waleed Shour in the 124th, but M. Naorem restored India's advantage in the 125th. Mohamad Sadek kept Lebanon alive in the 126th, only for U. Singh to seal the win for India in the 127th minute.
The statistics indicate a tight contest with neither side able to dominate. The absence of shots, expected goals and possession figures in the data reflects a match of few clear chances, fitting a goalless 120-minute outcome. Both defences were organised, with Lebanon's back line marshalled effectively to keep India at bay, while India's defensive structure prevented Lebanon from creating any breakthroughs. The five yellow cards for Lebanon and two for India suggest a combative midfield battle, with Lebanon's discipline fraying as the game wore on: A. Markabawi was cautioned in the 27th minute, W. Shour in the 52nd, K. Darwiche in the 96th, and N. Matar in the 106th. For India, M. Singh received an early yellow in the 9th minute, while A. Ali was booked in the 109th.
The lack of reported player match ratings and detailed statistics limits further granular analysis, but the narrative is clear: both teams cancelled each other out in open play. The substitution count, with Lebanon making four changes and India five, suggests both benches were used to try to influence a game that remained stubbornly goalless. India's ability to take four of their five penalties successfully, while Lebanon missed three, proved decisive. Chhetri, Ali, Naorem and Singh all converted under pressure, while Waleed Shour and Mohamad Sadek scored for Lebanon but their team-mates could not match that composure.
The Lemeister model, which gave Lebanon a 47 per cent chance of winning in normal time, had projected a 1-0 victory for them, reflecting their status as pre-match favourites. India's 22 per cent win probability in regulation was considered the least likely outcome, but their resilience and penalty accuracy turned that forecast on its head. The draw chance of 31 per cent proved prescient for the 120-minute outcome, but the shoot-out was where the tie was settled.
For India, this victory secures a place in the SAFF Championship final, a significant achievement given the model's pre-match assessment. Lebanon will rue their inability to convert their status as favourites into a result, with the match eventually decided by the lottery of penalties. India's progression underlines their growing proficiency in knockout football, while Lebanon must reflect on a tournament exit that came despite a defensively sound performance across 127 minutes of action.
